Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips

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Nov 03, 2019 Horse Betting News Posted on September 2, 2019 September 17, 2019 Overview Of The Kentucky Derby (Advice and Betting Tips) The Kentucky Derby Festival is an annual horse race held at Churchill Downs dirt racetrack in Louisville, Kentucky, in the United States. Mar 07, 2019 You should be ready to rock it for the Kentucky Derby 2019. A final tip would be to take time between races and analyze numbers and date in the betting market in a meticulous way. Try your luck with Bovada now to make the best of the bonuses offered on horses during the Kentucky Derby 2019.

Timeform's expert US handicapper Mark Milligan previews the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday and picks out his best bet. Mark Milligan previews the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening and picks out his best bet.

This year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ appears to be as open a renewal as we’ve seen in recent times, and the waters were further muddied when ante-post favourite Omaha Beach became an eleventh-hour non-runner after suffering a trapped epiglottis.

As so often in American top-level contests, Bob Baffert seems to hold the key to the race, fielding no less than three runners: Game Winner, Improbable and Roadster, all of whom have strong claims on form. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor Game Winner has yet to win a race in 2019, but he has hardly been disgraced in defeat, finishing a nose second to the aforementioned Omaha Beach in a division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on his reappearance before being beaten just half a length by stable companion Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby last time. In both those races Game Winner suffered wide trips and his efforts can be upgraded as a consequence. He has plenty of experience and determination and is likely to give his running once again.

Game Winner continues his undefeated career as he scores in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park for Trainer Bob Baffert, Owners Gary and Mary West with Jockey Joel Rosario aboard! pic.twitter.com/Ub1dBoUyUo

— TVG (@TVG) September 29, 2018

Despite owning a win over Game Winner, Roadster may struggle to confirm that form at Churchill Downs. He had a better trip than the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby and doesn’t seem to have as much stamina in his pedigree as his stablemate. It’s likely that Improbable, another Baffert trainee yet to post a win this year, will pose a bigger threat to Game Winner. Despite not being off the mark in 2019, Improbable has done little wrong in two starts, finishing a neck second to Long Range Toddy in the other division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn before finishing a length second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby at the same track last time.

Looking at the rest of the field, the superbly-bred Tacitus may be the one to serve it up to the Baffert battalions. A neck winner of a maiden at Aqueduct on just his second start in November, Tacitus posted an improved effort on his first three-year-old outing in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he bettered that performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out. Tacitus did particularly well that day as he suffered interference heading into the first turn but managed to gather himself and come through to record a convincing win on just his fourth career start, despite still looking a little green in the latter stages. Justify proved last year that a Kentucky Derby could be won by a horse with limited experience, and it may well be that Tacitus possesses the most latent talent in this field. If he can overcome his relative lack of seasoning, he may well emerge as a big player.

Another with just four runs under his belt is the unbeaten Florida Derby winner Maximum Security. This horse has divided opinion on the run up to the race, with several ways of looking at his form. There is no doubt that strictly on ratings his Florida Derby effort is as good as anything in the field, but he got away with soft fractions on the front end, and that win may not be quite as good as it looks on the figures. He also got to dictate in his previous win over 7f and will now get a real acid test of his credentials.

Undefeated and now a player on the big stage! Maximum Security makes all under a superb @LuisSae17433683 to win the Florida Derby at @GulfstreamPark. Could this be horse number 16 to win this race and the @KentuckyDerby? pic.twitter.com/QRFHGHTUdv

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 30, 2019

Looking at some of the bigger-priced runners, By My Standards has the capacity to outrun his current odds of around 20/1. He did take four starts to finally get off the mark, but his latest win in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds was achieved in a fair time and he looks to be coming to the boil at exactly the right moment. Those wanting an each-way interest in the race could do a lot worse than take a long look at this one. Vekoma is another at a fair price who has strong credentials, his convincing win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last time being achieved while recording a strong TimeformUS speed figure. This colt has tactical speed but could end up going a stride too fast in a race that may well unfold at a hot tempo.

In summary, Bob Baffert appears to hold all the aces, and while it was very tempting to put up Game Winner, the feeling is we have yet to see the best of Tacitus, who has untapped potential and appears to be getting better and better. At around 9/1, he represents fair value and is taken to give veteran trainer Bill Mott a long-overdue first Kentucky Derby win.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips Horse Racing

Selection:

Back Tacitusin the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs

Last year, the storyline was Justify’s quest for glory. It all started at Churchill Downs with a win in the 144th Kentucky Derby and culminated with being named the 13th winner of the coveted Triple Crown, after capturing the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 2018. This weekend, we get ready for the 145th running of the world-famous horse race. Check out our betting guide for odds, information and analysis on the race.

The Favorites

Three legendary trainers will look to capture their first-ever Derby title this weekend. Richard Mandella, Bill Mott and Steve Asmussen have won a combined 15,451 races in their illustrious careers, but none of them has ever won the “Run for the Roses.” Mandella looked to have the best chance of the three to end the unfortunate streak, as his horse Omaha Beach entered the week with the best overall odds at 4-1. With that being said, Omaha Beach has officially been scratched from the race. That opens the door for yet another potential Bob Baffert win in 2019.

Omaha Beach was followed by Baffert’s three entries; Game Winner (9-2), Roadster (5-1) and Improbable (5-1). Of course, Baffert is considered to be a legend in the horse racing game. He has already trained two Triple Crown-winning horses and has won five Kentucky Derbies, seven Preakness Stakes, three Belmont Stakes and three Kentucky Oaks. His two big winners were American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018. American Pharoah became the 12th horse to win the Triple Crown and first to do it since 1978, ending a drought of 37 years. He also became the first horse ever to win the Grand Slam of Thoroughbred racing, which includes the three most prestigious races, as well as the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

One of the betting favorites to potentially avoid is Roadster.Despite winning in the Santa Anita Derby against fellow Baffert-trained horse Game Winner, Roadster ran a combined 38feet less than Game Winner and barely pulled off the victory by a half-length.Game Winner was even wide on both turns, which should have provided moredistance between the top-2 finishers. In addition, Roadster drew the No. 17post for Saturday’s race, which could mean even wider turns than at SantaAnita. That could spell trouble for anyone willing to bet on the 5-1 odds thatare attached to Roadster.

Betting Info

Obviously, all the buzz around this event has a lot to do with the betting implications that this prestigious race holds. So, here are some helpful stats and facts from the previous 144 runnings of the Kentucky Derby that might help you decide which horse you want to place your money on.

Notonly has the post-time favorite won each of the last six years, but each ofthem entered the race with single-digit odds. In fact, ten of the past 19 and eightof the past 12 Derby winners entered the race as the post-time favorite.

Despite50 percent of the winners since 2000 having single digit odds entering therace, the average price of the winner during that time has been nearly 12-1.That means that if one of the favorites does not win, it could be a truelongshot crossing the finish line first. Do you have the courage to wager on anunderdog?

MaximumSecurity (10-1) won the Florida Derby a month ago. Three of the last sixKentucky Derby winners also won the Florida Derby in the same year. In fact, 15Kentucky Derby winners overall have also accomplished that feat. Maximum Securitywill start from the seventh post.

Interms of jockey success, the most prominent name that comes to mind is Mike Smith, who took home the crown lastyear riding Justify. Unfortunately, he was set to ride Omaha Beach, who was thebetting favorite but was recently scratched from the race. Instead, keep an eyeout for John Velasquez, who won the 2017 Derby on top of Always Dreaming.

Nopost position has produced more winners at the Kentucky Derby than No. 5 with10 over the 144-year history of the race. Baffert’s Improbable will start from post5 and will be ridden by 2018 jockey earnings leader Irad Ortiz Jr. At 6-1 odds, Improbable is one of the favorites.With that being said, he has finished second in consecutive races on wet tracksdue to his pacing mentality not allowing him to make up enough ground at theend.

Key Betting Terms/Options

Ofcourse, the traditional and easiest way to bet on a horse race is to win, placeor show. If you bet on the horse to win, they must finish in first place. Ifyou bet on him to place, he must finish either first or second. And finally, ifyou choose to bet on a horse to show, that horse must finish in first, secondor third place for you to cash in.

Fromthere, the betting options get a little more complex but a lot more fun.

Exacta: Betting on two horses to finish1-2, in that order. In 2014, a $2 Exacta bet on California Chrome andCommanding Curve would have paid $340.

Trifecta: As you can probably tell fromthe name, this option means to bet on three horses to finish 1-2-3, in thatorder. A Trifecta bet on Danza finishing third behind the two above-mentionedhorses in 2014 would have cashed a $2 bet at $3,424.60.

Superfecta: I’m sure you are beginning tosense a trend, but if not, a Superfecta bet is when you place a wager on four horsesto finish 1-2-3-4, in that order. Again, adding Wicked Strong as thefourth-place finisher in 2014 would have seen your $2 bet earn you a staggering$15,383.80.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Betting Tips Football

Quinella: Finally, a Quinella bet ispicking two horses to finish 1-2, in any order. This gives you a much betterchance to win but offers less enticing odds that the above options.

Kentucky Derby

BoxedWagers: Similarto the Quinella, this option provides more opportunity to win but with lessintriguing and profitable returns. Boxing your Trifecta or Superfecta betssimply means that the horses you choose can finish in any order, as long asthey finish in the top-3 (Trifecta) or top-4 (Superfecta). Essentially, aQuinella is a boxed Exacta bet.