Nba Over Under Strategy

NBA Over/Under Bets. If you aren’t as interested in betting on a specific team at NBA sportsbooks online, over/under bets might be for you. These bets aren’t placed on one particular team to win, but rather, the total number of points both teams will score. Let’s take a look at our earlier example to see how an over/under bet works. Pennst-mchst over 140. Stjoe-dayt over 125. Can-rider under 140. Iowa-ill over 114. Virg-duke over 145.5. Sofla-stj over 128. Cle-det over 180. Moody discovered that sportsbooks often underestimate game totals for NBA non-conference games, and began taking the over on all games with an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a simple strategy, but it paid off handsomely as he was correct 63.5% of the time for all games meeting that criteria from 2004-05 to 2008-09. Since 2005, when a team has gone over the total in home games nearly 60% of the time, betting the under is a profitable 930-790-21 (54%). There is more value following this strategy if both teams playing are on short rest (tired legs) and the line is trending down (indication of smart money on the under). Unders on Good Home Over Team (PRO). The National Basketball Association (NBA) format and season. Total points over/under. One strategy I am fond of is backing a team with a double-digit deficit at halftime.

• Point Spread: Commonly called the line or spread, it is the number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that they feel will get an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the favorite. The negative value (-10.5) means the team is favored by 10.5 points. The positive value (+10.5) indicates an underdog of 10.5 points. In this instance, the favored team must win by at least 11 points to cover the spread. The underdog team can lose by 10 points and still cover the spread.

• Total: Known as the over/under, common wisdom says it is how many points oddsmakers feel will be scored in an NBA game by both teams combined. If you wagered under 197.5, you want the combined score of both teams to less than 197 (example 100-96).

• Money Line: Commonly used as a baseball and hockey wagering tool, basketball moneylines are popular for picking underdogs. There is no point spread linked to the moneyline. So the team you bet on only has to win the game, not win by a certain number of points. The negative value indicates the favorite, just like a point spread (-170) and the positive value means an underdog (+150). If you picture the number 100 sitting in the middle of these two values, moneylines are easier to comprehend.

• Futures: Betting on a future event (such as which team will win the NBA title) is called future betting. Oddsmakers will update future odds during the year, shortening the odds for good teams on hot streaks and lengthening odds for slumping teams with injury problems. Example: the NBA top team could be +170 to win the championship. This translates to a $100 wager paying out a $170 profit if that team wins. A lousy team might be +2000, making a $100 wager pay out a whopping $2,000 as a longshot.

It’s time to put your wagers down ahead of the 2019-20 NBA season.

With so much activity in the summer between big trades and even bigger signings, it’s a little tougher than usual to peg the over/unders for each of the 30 teams, but luckily, our Nick Schwartz and Charles Curtis have crunched the numbers, done hours and hours research and come up with their predictions (or, like everyone else, they’re just guessing!).

Here are their over/under takes as the Oct. 22 opening night gets closer with the Raptors and Pelicans playing, followed by Lakers-Clippers.

(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)

Atlanta Hawks: 33.5

Charles: Over

They won 29 games last season and play in the weaker conference. That and a step forward from this young roster is worth five victories.

Nick: Over

This one is probably going to come down to the wire, but I’m high on Trae Young and Cam Reddish.

Boston Celtics: 48.5

Charles: Over

Losing Al Horford will hurt a lot, but maybe Kemba Walker replacing Kyrie Irving will be what the locker room needs to just get to 49 wins again.

Nick: Under

This team only won 49 a year ago, and I’m not convinced they’re better off with Kemba Walker over Kyrie Irving, especially with Horford gone. Much will depend on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but I don’t feel especially comfortable betting on the Celtics to exceed expectations.

Brooklyn Nets: 45.5

Charles: Under

I loved this team last year, I think they’re in for big things when Kevin Durant returns. But I just don’t know if this roster without KD is ready to make the leap quite yet.

Nick: Over

I think there’s a nonzero chance Kyrie Irving has chemistry issues with his new teammates and we see a Boston 2.0 situation play out, but I’m banking on Caris LeVert to look like the borderline All-Star he was before his injury last year.

Charlotte Hornets: 23.5

Charles: Under

UNDER! UNDERUNDERUNDERUNDER! Does that cover it?

Nick: Under

23.5 wins is not very many wins… but this team is gross.

Chicago Bulls: 32.5

Charles: Over

I’m intrigued! Not “they’re totally sneaking into the playoffs” intrigued, but I think this roster — with vets including Thaddeus Young and Otto Porter Jr. — will be good enough to hit the over.

Nick: Over

The Bulls made some solid moves in the offseason, and this may be the Lauri Markkanen breakout year.

Cleveland Cavaliers: 24.5

Charles: Under

This is assuming the franchise trades Kevin Love at some point.

Nick: Under

The Cavaliers have some interesting young pieces that could potentially drag this franchise toward .500 in the coming years – but this team is a project, and they’ll probably need to move Kevin Love whenever they can.

Dallas Mavericks: 40.5

Charles: Under

I love the idea of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing together, plus there are a lot of sneaky-good rotation guys in the mix. But! Are we sure Porzingis will stay completely healthy? Can they really win 41 times in the West? I’m nervous. This one is going to be close.

Nick: Under

Even with the Warriors and Thunder bracing for a nosedive in the standings, there are too many good teams in the West.

Denver Nuggets: 52.5

Charles: Under

Another team I love watching, but are they going to get left in the dust with the conference improving all over the place?

Nick: Under

This team won 54 games a year ago, when they were comparatively stronger relative to the field in the West. Denver was 5-2 against the Lakers and Clippers last season. They might go 2-5 this year.

Detroit Pistons: 37.5

Charles: Over

A second-straight .500 season seems about right here.

Nick: Over

Blake Griffin quietly put up his best season since 2014 last year with the Pistons. This team can hang in the East, barring injuries.

Golden State Warriors: 47.5

Charles: Over

Are we so sure they’re going to be so much worse? Are we so sure Klay Thompson is going to miss that much time? I’ll take the over — there’s no way they lose 10 fewer games than last season.

Nick: Under

It remains to be seen if this team can stop any opposing guards, and the loss of Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson (for a significant period) is too much to bear. There’s no doubt in my mind that Durant and Thompson are worth around 10 wins over the course of a season, and the West is even more dangerous than it was a year ago.

Houston Rockets: 53.5

Charles: Under

I just don’t know about Russell Westbrook figuring out how to share with James Harden, so while they’re probably a 50-plus win team, they end up just missing.

Nick: Over

I have reservations about the Westbrook-Harden combo, but I still think they’ll cruise in the regular season before imploding in the playoffs, in true Rockets fashion.

Indiana Pacers: 46.5

Charles: Over

They’re deep as heck and picked up some key role players this offseason. I’m fairly confident with this one.

Nick: Over

This was a good team without Victor Oladipo for much of the season last year, and he should be back by December or January. Comfortably over, here.

Los Angeles Clippers: 54.5

Nba Over Under Strategy 2020

Charles: Over

Here’s your No. 1 seed in the West, which gets them to 55 victories or more.

Nick: Under

The Clippers will likely lead the league in load management, and Paul George is already expected to miss at least the first month of the season. I think the Clippers sacrifice the regular season to be as prepared as possible for the postseason.

Los Angeles Lakers: 51.5

Charles: Under

I’m not buying it. I worry about the backcourt and about how they make Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard/JaVale McGee work. So I’ll assume they’re a playoff team at 49 to 50 wins.

Nick: Over

Kyle Kuzma is the X-factor here, and the Lakers won’t be rushing him back as he recovers from a stress reaction in his foot. Still, LeBron James was putting up MVP-level numbers last year before his injury, and Anthony Davis is my pick to win the 2020 MVP award. With the Rockets, Thunder and Warriors all potentially falling in the standings, the wins will be there for the taking.

Memphis Grizzlies: 27.5

Charles: Under

I’m extremely excited for the Ja and Jaren Era, but it’s going to be painful in Year 1.

Nick: Under

I’m surprised this line wasn’t closer to 25.5 or 24.5. This team is going to struggle without Mike Conley.

Miami Heat: 43.5

Charles: Over

Jimmy Butler and a big year from Bam Adebayo cement them as a postseason team.

Nick: Over

This one feels like a trap, as I think the East is probably better than we’re giving it credit for, but Jimmy Butler is probably worth the bump they need from a year ago.

Milwaukee Bucks: 57.5

Charles: Under

The No. 1 seed in the East is certainly right there for the taking. But maybe they take a little step back simply because of a regression to the mean?

Nick: Over

I’m not as high on the 76ers as many others are, and with Toronto losing Kawhi, the Bucks are the clear class of the Eastern Conference. The No. 1 seed is a lock.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 35.5

Charles: Under

Did they do anything of note this offseason to change a mediocre squad? Nope.

Nick: Under

Even if Karl-Anthony Towns takes a step forward and joins the MVP conversation – and that’s a big if – he has no help on this team.

New Orleans Pelicans: 39.5

Charles: Under

That seems a little high for an extremely young team of mostly newcomers.

Nick: Under

Even if Zion Williamson exceeds his already sky-high expectations, which I suspect he won’t, 40 wins is too many to expect in the West from a group of Lakers castoffs and Jrue Holiday.

New York Knicks: 26.5

Charles: Under

Even getting to that terrible number seems like a lot to ask for the mishmash the front office put together after whiffing on the big free agents this offseason.

Nick: Under

I think people are sleeping on Julius Randle, who will emerge as a national star this season – but this roster is still weak.

Oklahoma City Thunder: 31.5

Nba Over Under Trends

Charles: Under

Another one where I assume some deals will be made to leave a somewhat barebones roster even more gutted.

Nick: Under

The best thing the Thunder can do is jettison Chris Paul and let Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put in a full year to develop. They won’t win many games doing this, but this team is already focused on future drafts.

Orlando Magic: 41.5

Charles: Over

Things are starting to look up with this team — and hey, maybe Markelle Fultz will turn out to be good? — so I’ll take the over.

Nick: Under

This one’s on a razor’s edge, but enough teams have seemingly improved more significantly (Heat, Hawks, Nets, Pacers, Bulls), that I’m not sure the Magic repeat their 42-win season.

Philadelphia 76ers: 54.5

Charles: Over

It all comes together after a fantastic offseason, and the remade starting five carries the Sixers to the top seed in the East.

Nick: Over

I don’t think the Sixers are a better team than they were a year ago, and I need to see Ben Simmons draining jumpers before I believe it, but with the Celtics’ overhaul and the Raptors’ losing Kawhi in the Atlantic, I do think the Sixers will post a better record this season.

Phoenix Suns: 28.5

Charles: Under

What, are Ricky Rubio and Dario Saric suddenly worth 10 wins? No thank you.

Nick: Under

There’s no chance.

Portland Trail Blazers: 46.5

Charles: Over

This team could very easily get to 50 wins even with the improvements made by others around them.

Nick: Over

The Blazers won 53 last season, and while they’ll be without Jusuf Nurkic indefinitely, Hassan Whiteside should be a serviceable replacement.

Sacramento Kings: 37.5

Charles: Over

Sigh. They were on their way to a bottom-two postseason seed … and then the Western Conference got so much harder. I think they get to 39 wins again.

Nick: Under

Too many other teams in the West have improved more notably than the Kings, who only managed to re-sign Harrison Barnes and add Dewayne Dedmon and Trevor Ariza. It’ll be close, though.

San Antonio Spurs: 46.5

Charles: Under

If it is under, it won’t be by much.

Nick: Over

Dejounte Murray’s back! DeMar DeRozan is in year 2! LaMarcus Aldridge is still a stud!

Toronto Raptors: 46.5

Charles: Over

Yes, losing Kawhi Leonard hurts a lot, but they’re not bad enough to hit the under with OG Anunoby getting healthy and with a deep bench.

Nick: Under

There’s a logjam in the middle of the East, and the Raptors have to avoid both a post-championship letdown and make up for the loss of a top-3 player in the game.

Utah Jazz: 54.5

Charles: Under

The expectations are sky-high, as they should be, after Bojan Bogdanovic and Mike Conley were added. But 55 wins? That’s a little too sky-high for me.

Nick: Under

Donovan Mitchell hasn’t peaked yet and Mike Conley is a great get, but I don’t think the Nuggets improve by five wins from last season.

Washington Wizards: 28.5

Charles: Under

A potential Bradley Beal trade cements them as one of the worst teams in the league (and yes, this includes if John Wall returns).

Nick: Under

Thomas Bryant is a stud and you should make sure he’s on your fantasy team. That’s about the only positive thing I have to say about the Wizards.

Nba Over Under Strategy 2019

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