Best Mma Fighter
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The UFC has a very intriguing heavyweight bout headline UFC Vegas 20 on Saturday, February 27 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
This article is part of our MMA Best Bets series. The UFC is set for its second pay-per-view of 2020, as UFC 258 goes down on February 13 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. Her introduction to the world of MMA came through Jiu-Jitsu in 2008. She taught MMA was something she could do and took her first amateur fight in 2011. After winning that fight by TKO she decided to take a pro fight in 2012 on the KOTC Wild Card show. She was victorious again winning by a Knockout by way of a knee to the head.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Alexander Hernandez (12-3) vs. Thiago Moises (14-4)
Weight class: Lightweight
I love this matchup for Alexander Hernandez.
Hernandez is someone many fans love or hate due to his trash-talking self. He was outmatched against Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober, but Thiago Moises is far from their level.
Best Mma Fighter In The World
In Moises' last fight, he was picked apart by Michael Johnson in the first round. Although he ended up heel-hooking him just seconds into the second round, that move won't work on Hernandez. The Texan grew up grappling, and I actually think their grappling is a wash, which, in turn, will make this a standup fight.
On the feet, there is no question Alexander Hernandez is the better striker, and I fully expect him to pick apart the Brazilian as Johnson did. I think -200 is a very fair price to play, and he is also -188 on FanDuel. To me, Hernandez should be at least -270, as I think he wins this fight 75 percent of the time.
The Play: Alexander Hernandez (-200)
Alex Caceres (17-12) vs. Kevin Croom (21-12)
Weight class: Featherweight
Alex Caceres should not be a -227 favorite over Kevin Croom, plain and simple.
Although Caceres is on a three-fight winning streak, he beat short-notice replacement Austin Springer, Chase Hooper and Steven Peterson, the last of which is a fight a ton of people thought he lost.
The problem with Caceres in his career has been grapplers who can also strike. He had success against Hooper because the prospect couldn't strike with him, nor were his takedowns good enough to get the fight to the mat. Kevin Croom, meanwhile, is a different story. In his UFC debut, he submitted Roosevelt Roberts, and in his career has proven to be a solid grappler who also cracks hard.
There is a chance Caceres just keeps this fight on the outside and jabs his way to a win. However, I trust James Krause to come up with the right game plan for Croom to land the big shots and eventually submit Caceres. This is closer to a pick'em fight, so to get +175 on Croom is why I'm taking this shot.
The Play: Kevin Croom (+175)
Sabina Mazo (9-1) vs. Alexis Davis (19-10)
Weight class: Women's Bantamweight
Sabina Mazo is making the move up to bantamweight while Alexis Davis is moving back up to her old weight class.
There is no question who the UFC wants to win this fight. Mazo is one of the top women's prospects, while Davis is on a three-fight losing streak, and at 36 years old, is on the last leg of her career.
In the fight, I expect Mazo to be able to keep this standing and just pick apart Davis for three rounds. I don't think the 23-year-old will be able to get a stoppage, as six of her 10 fights have gone the distance. For Davis, she has not been finished since Sara McMann submitted her in 2016.
To me, Mazo is the better fighter, and in the standup fight I expect this to be, she will use her reach to land the better shots and win a decision.
The Play: Sabina Mazo wins by decison (+100)
Dustin Jacoby (13-5) vs. Maxim Grishin (31-8-2) &
Magomed Ankalaev (14-1) vs. Nikita Krylov (27-7)
Weight class: Light Heavyweight
I really like Magomed Ankalaev against Nikita Krylov, but at -345, it is too steep of a price to pay, which is why I'm adding in Dustin Jacoby.
In the first fight of the night, Jacoby – who used to be a professional kickboxer – is on his second stint in the UFC but is a completely different fighter. First off, under Marc Montoya, he is fighting much smarter and has proven he can go five hard rounds. His takedown defense has also gotten better, which is why I like him in this fight. Grishin is a slower fighter and doesn't have the power to KO Jacoby. I expect Jacoby to pick Grishin apart for however long the fight lasts.
If Jacoby wins, it also sets up an option for you to hedge with Nikita Krylov, who is a +260 underdog. However, Ankalaev is the better fighter everywhere, but I do expect the fight to remain standing and for the Russian to land the power shots. Although Krylov hasn't been knocked out since 2013, Ankalaev has a different type of power. If he can't get the finish, I do think he'll do enough to win the first two rounds and get the decision.
The Play: Jacoby & Ankalaev parlay (-103)
This article is part of our MMA Best Bets series.
The UFC is set for its second pay-per-view of 2020, as UFC 258 goes down on February 13 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
In this series of articles, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog pick, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay I like. All lines are taken from William Hill online sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Chris Gutierrez (15-3-2) vs. Andre Ewell (17-6)
Weight class: 140-pound Catchweight
Chris Gutierrez vs. Andre Ewell was put together on fight week, but it is a very intriguing matchup that sees Gutierrez as a -150 favorite, with the comeback on Ewell at +130.
Although Ewell will have a sizeable height and reach advantage which could pose some problems for Gutierrez, the wrestling will be the difference. In the UFC, although Gutierrez has just a 50 percent accuracy rate, Ewell has a 73 percent takedown defense and has been taken down eight times in five UFC fights. Ewell's two UFC losses are by submission and ground-and-pound TKO, where Gutierrez has proven on the regional scene that is how he finishes fights.
Another cause for concern is Ewell's cardio. In the past two fights, he won split decisions, and many thought he lost to Jonathan Martinez. Part of the reason why he is having these close fights is that he clearly wins the first round, but in the second half of the second round and in the third round, he gasses out. That will hurt him here against a cardio machine in Gutierrez, as in Gutierrez's last fight, he was 10-8'd in the first round and came back to dominate the next two rounds. The same thing could happen here.
The play: Chris Gutierrez (-150)
Maycee Barber (8-1) vs. Alexa Grasso (12-3)
Weight class: Women's Flyweight
Maycee Barber as a +110 underdog is very surprising to me.
In her last fight, Barber was nearly a -1000 favorite against Roxanne Modafferi, and although she lost, she did tear her ACL early in the fight and held on to see the judge's scorecards. Outside of that fight, 'The Future' has looked impressive with stoppage wins over Gillian Robertson, JJ Aldrich, and Hannah Cifers. Grasso, meanwhile, is coming off a good decision win over Ji Yeon Kim in her flyweight debut.
Why I like Barber so much is the grappling and the lack of takedown defense on Grasso's side. Wrestling has been the Mexican's kryptonite, as she has a 63 percent takedown defense and in fights against grapplers (Carla Esparza, Tatiana Suarez and Randa Markos), she was taken down a combined 10 times. Even Felice Herrig landed two takedowns against Grasso.
I expect Barber to come out with a wrestling heavy game plan and just control the fight on the ground for a decision win or possibly a ground and pound TKO or submission.
The play: Maycee Barber (+110)
Julian Marquez (7-2) vs. Maki Pitolo (13-7)
Weight class: Middleweight
Both Julian Marquez and Maki Pitlo are finishers, and I'm surprised the number for 'fight doesn't go the distance' is only -175.
In Pitolo's four UFC fights, he only hit the scorecards twice and both times were against grinders in Callan Potter and Impa Kasanganay, who are known for decision wins. Julian Marquez, meanwhile, has only ever been the distance twice, and one of those was his last fight in which he tore his shoulder early on in the bout.
On paper, this is a fight between two hard hitters who have a ton of KO power. Pitolo, especially, is a live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword fighter. Marquez also has a ground game, where we have seen Pitolo struggle a ton, so it wouldn't even be surprising to see him get a submission win.
Regardless, I think this line should be close to -225, so -175 for the fight to end inside the distance is good value.
The play: Marquez-Pitolo doesn't go the distance (-175)
Bobby Green (27-11-1) vs. Jim Miller (32-15) &
Belal Muhammad (17-3) vs. Dhiego Lima (15-7)
Weight class: Lightweight & Welterweight
Best Mma Fighters 2020
Bobby Green and Belal Muhammad are two of my more confident picks on the card, however, their odds are way too high. Currently, Green is -275 while Muhammad is -400, but parlaying them together gets you -142.
Best Mma Fighters
The way Jim Miller wins fights is by submitting people in the first round. Yet, Green hasn't been submitted since 2009 and has fought some high-level grapplers since then. Ultimately, I expect Green to lose the first round of the fight, but in the second and third round, as Miller starts to slow down, Green will start picking apart the legend of the game and win a decision.
Best Mma Fighters Ranked
As for Belal Muhammad, I just don't understand this matchmaking. Muhammad is a ranked welterweight and has proven to be someone to watch out for. Lima, meanwhile, has been very inconsistent in the UFC, and his chin is a major concern. Although I don't think Muhammad will be able to KO him, I expect him to just throw more volume and win a decision.